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Eurasian Business Briefing Research & Analysis

Russian automotive market 2014 – PwC

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Russian automotive market 2014 – PwC

The BRIC markets have the greatest potential for unit sales growth in the next 10 years.

Going forward, the US and EU markets will not be able to demonstrate a similar growth rate as emerging economies; however, they will remain the key markets alongside China.

 China is already the largest automotive market in the world, which will continue to expand (in volume) and will be under focus of the car producers’ attention.

The role of Japan, formerly one of the world’s largest markets, will further diminish. Japanese car producers will be increasingly focused on meeting consumer needs in other countries.

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IMF Report 2014 – Kyrgyzstan

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IMF Report 2014 – Kyrgyzstan
Political context.
On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine.
Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge.
The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports.
The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014.
The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative

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IMF Report 2014 – Belarus

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IMF Report 2014 – Belarus

After two crises in four years, growth has slowed amid bouts of external pressures. Following average annual GDP growth of 8% during 1997–2008, in the aftermath of the 2008 and 2011 crises growth reached only 1.7%in 2012 and 0.9% in 2013 reflecting structural limitations of the economy and a weak external environment. Repeated attempts by the authorities to boost activity through domestic policy stimulus, while delaying much-needed structural reform, have resulted in rapidly rising external imbalances and recurrent bouts of exchange rate pressures, which have in turn given rise to frequent, though modest, policy shifts in short-term efforts to maintain stability.

High external financing needs and dwindling buffers leave Belarus highly dependent on external financial support. Without more decisive policy changes to reduce imbalances, and with another year of large external payments ahead, Belarus is highly dependent on external support. Russia has promised $2 billion in loans, but modalities for this support are still being worked out and at the time of this report only $450 million has been disbursed. Meanwhile, the decision on the final $440 million tranche under the program with the Anti Crisis Fund (ACF) of the Eurasian Community has been suspended until the second half of 2014 because of noncompliance with program conditionality. Lack of progress on policies also continues to prevent discussions on a Fund program. 

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IMF Report 2014 – Russia

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IMF Report 2014 – Russia
Russia’s growth is slowing because of pre-existing structural reasons and the fallout from geopolitical tensions. The growth slowdown that started in 2011 continued in 2013 despite accommodative policies as the economy hit capacity constraints. The fallout from recent geopolitical tensions relating to Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, the turmoil in emerging markets (EM) following the Fed’s discussion of tapering unconventional monetary policy are bringing the economy to a standstill. 
This follows an almost doubling of Russia’s real GDP per capita over 2000-2012. During that period, growth also contributed to a significant decline in poverty rates and unemployment. However, after almost 15 years of growth based on rising oil prices, macroeconomic stabilization, and increasing use of spare resources, this growth framework has reached its limits.
The authorities had begun taking some steps toward addressing the structural bottlenecks. Since the 2008–09 crisis, the Russian authorities have strengthened their macroeconomic framework with the introduction of a fiscal rule, a transition toward inflation targeting and a more flexible exchange rate. Some structural reforms were initiated: the introduction of procurement and anti-corruption laws, measures to strengthen the judicial system, the creation of a Federal Business Ombudsman and a number of initiatives aimed at improving the business and regulatory environment. However, the privatization agenda has stalled and other structural bottlenecks continue to hamper growth, seriously constraining its long

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IMF Report 2014 – Kazakhstan

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IMF Report 2014 – KazakhstanContext: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014).
Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth.
The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs).
The May 29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and

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IMF Report 2014 – Azerbaijan

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IMF Report 2014 – Azerbaijan
Since the last consultation in early 2013, the government has succeeded in concluding historic agreements in the gas sector and in tapping the international financial markets. The agreements extend cooperation with a BP-led consortium over the next 40 years and enable the implementation of the Shah Deniz-2 gas project, including the construction of pipelines to facilitate the delivery of Azeri gas to Europe beyond 2018. These positive developments in the gas sector along with the strong external position of the country paved the way for the issuance of a debut Eurobond by the Azerbaijani government last March, which was well received by investors amid market turbulence in the region. 
 Notwithstanding these achievements, the overarching challenge for Azerbaijan remains to reduce its heavy dependence on the oil and gas sectors while fostering sustainable private sector–led growth. Diversification is a priority given the relatively short horizon of oil reserves and the fact that the wealth associated with gas discoveries is estimated at about one-third of the oil wealth.A more broad-based growth strategy will also help sustain the rapid decline in poverty and inequality since the early 2000s.

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IMF Report 2014 – Mongolia

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IMF Report 2014 – Mongolia
Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy
Spearheaded by foreign direct investment (FDI)-financed development of the mining sector, per capita income has increased five-fold, to more than US$3,000, over the past decade. Medium-term prospects are promising as mining output is projected to expand further over the next five years. Foreign investors’ optimism about Mongolia’s prospects was illustrated by successful international bond issuances in 2012. A private mining company, a private bank, the state-owned Development Bank (DBM), and the sovereign (the US$1.5 billion “Chinggis” bond) raised a total of US$3bn (30%of GDP).
The strong growth of the economy has helped reduce poverty. Over the past two years, poverty has declined by more than 11 percentage points, to 27 percent of the population in 2012. However, indicators for inequality and unemployment suggest that there is scope to make growth more inclusive, despite relatively high social spending compared to Mongolia’s peers.
However, macroeconomic policies have been unsustainably loose the past two years. Government expenditure increased by 70 percent in real terms between 2010 and 2012, with growing importance of off-budget spending. In late-2012, the BOM embarked on a major monetary stimulus, which added to growing BOP pressures. During 2012 and the first half of 2013, BOP pressures were mostly reflected in a decline in the BOM’s Net International Reserves (NIR). In recent months, the exchange rate has become more flexible. Capitalization and liquidity of the banking system have improved. However, dollarization remains high and the provisioning regime for commercial banks lags Asian peers.
 

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Cost of Doing Business in Kyrgyzstan 2013: JICA

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Cost of Doing Business in Kyrgyzstan 2013: JICA
A guide to opening a business in Kyrgyzstan prepare jointly by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Kyrgyz Republic’s Chamber of Commerce.The guide covers the methods of opening an enterprise; required procedures; and costs, licenses and permits; certificates; taxes and social payments; and logistics and cargo transportation.

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Asian Development Bank (ADB) Statistics 2014

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Asian Development Bank (ADB) Statistics 2014 Land; Population; National Accounts; Prices; Money; Balance of Payments; Reserves; External Debt; Central Government Finance

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Doing Business in Europe & Central Asia 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Europe & Central Asia 2015 – World Bank: 


A comparison of the business environments in 26 countries in Europe & Central Asia: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, BosniaHerzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia FYR, Moldova, Montenegro,Russia, San Marino, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan

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Doing Business in Tajikistan 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Tajikistan 2015 – World Bank:

Starting a business in Tajikistan requires 4 procedures, takes 39 days, and costs 23.3% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.) 

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business in Russia 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Russia 2015 – World Bank
Starting a business in Russia requires 4.4 procedures, takes 11.2 days and costs 1.2% of income per capita ( Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.) 

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business in Kyrgyzstan 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Kyrgyzstan 2015 – World Bank


Starting a business in Kyrgyzstan requires 2 procedures, takes days and costs 2.4% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities. See the chapter on distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking at the end of this profile for more details.)

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business in Belarus 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Belarus 2015 – World Bank
Starting a business In Belarus requires 5 procedures, takes 9 days, and costs 0.8% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.)

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business in Kazakhstan 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Kazakhstan 2015 – World Bank:

Starting a business in Kazakhstan requires 6 procedures, takes 10 days, and costs 0.5% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.) 

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business in Uzbekistan 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Uzbekistan 2015 – World Bank


Starting a business in Uzbekistan there requires 7 procedures, takes 7.5 days and costs 3.3% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.) 

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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Doing Business Guide Tajikistan 2012/13 – PwC

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Doing Business Guide Tajikistan 2012/13 – PwC

Shortly after its declaration of independence in 1991, the Tajikistan currency market faced a unique situation when cash payments were made with Russian rubles and non-cash payments were settled with hyperinflated Soviet rubles. The difference between their values resulted in drastic damage to the Tajikistan economy. In mid-1995, the Tajikistan government introduced a Tajik ruble, underwent a conversion and denomination process, and established the Tajik Interbank Currency Exchange. This contributed to the reduction of inflation rates from 2100% in 1995 to 40% in 1996. The inflation rate was approximately 6.4% in 2010.

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Doing Business Guide Kyrgyzstan 2012/13 – PwC

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Doing Business Guide Kyrgyzstan 2012/13 – PwC
Kyrgyzstan’s GDP for the first two quarters in 2011 was approximately US$2.3bn, a 5.5% increase on the same period in 2010. This growth was mainly connected with the increase in gold production and construction activities. However, Kyrgyzstan is witnessing an increase in inflation, which was at 7.2% compared to the December of the previous year. Agriculture constitutes around one-third of the GDP and more than one-third of employment.
The mountainous terrain accommodates raising livestock – the largest agricultural activity. The primary crops include cotton, wheat, vegetables, fruit, and berries. While petroleum and gas reserves are negligible, Kyrgyzstan is rich in mineral resources such as gold and other precious metals. 

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Doing Business in Kazakhstan 2014 – PwC

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Doing Business in Kazakhstan 2014 – PwC
General Overview Kazakhstan, the second largest of the former Soviet republics in land mass, has huge fossil fuel reserves as well as other minerals and metals. It also has considerable agricultural potential with its vast steppe accommodating both livestock and grain production. The industrial sector relies on the extraction and processing of these natural resources and also on a relatively large machinery building sector specializing in construction equipment, tractors, agricultural machinery and some defense items.

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Doing Business in Azerbaijan 2015 – World Bank

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Doing Business in Azerbaijan 2015 – World Bank: 


Starting a business in Azerbaijan requires 3 procedures, takes 5 days, and costs 3.1% of income per capita. (Most indicator sets refer to a case scenario in the largest business city of an economy, except for 11 economies for which the data are a population-weighted average of the 2 largest business cities.)

Introduction
The business environment
Starting a business
Dealing with construction permit
Getting electricity
Registering property
Getting credit
Protecting minority investors
Taxes
Trading across borders
Enforcing contracts 
Resolving insolvency
Distance to frontier and ease of doing business ranking

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