print logo

Eurasian Business Briefingmacroeconomics

Nurly Zhol and structural reforms set to boost Kazakh growth to 2.5% – IMF

Nurly ZholA combination of targeted fiscal support, exchange rate adjustment, strengthened domestic liquidity management and structural reforms have helped Kazakhstan counter the effects of lower oil prices and slower growth in Russia, China and Europe, the IMF pronounced this week; and, while GDP growth slowed to 1% in 2016, it is expected to bounce back to 2.5% in the current year.
Significantly, (more…)

Times of Central Asia Read More»

Russian recession near end

Russian recession: Russia is edging closer to the end of its longest recession in almost two decades as mining, manufacturing and agriculture along with stabilising oil prices, to help to steady the economy.
GDP contracted by 0.2% last year after an upwardly revised decline of 2.8% in 2015, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Service yesterday. with rising exports and rebuilding of stocks among the key drivers. Manufacturing grew by 1.4% while production of oil, gas and other natural resources was up by 0.2%. Buoyed by restrictions on imports and the ruble devaluation, agriculture grew by 3.5 %. although consumers continued to struggle, with wholesale and retail trade down 3.6 %. Construction was also off the pace and contracted by 4.3%.
“We can expect growth of 1-1.5 % [this year] and maybe even 2% if things go well”, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov predicted last month.
President Vladimir Putin was less sanguine, however, and has warned ministers that the country was not yet out of the woods and pressed them to find new sources of stimulus.

Bloomberg Read More»

IMF upgrades China forecast – but downgrades India for demonitisation

Chinese metal workersChina’s economy will grow by 6.5% over the course of 2017, the IMF predicted yesterday, 0.3% more than previously forecast, on the expectation that the authorities in Beijing will continue to implement measures aimed at stimulating growth; but it nevertheless warned (more…)

straitstimes Read More»

World Bank urges Russia to diversify

World BankRussia needs to improve its investment climate, diversify its oil-dependent economy and boost productivity growth if it wants to catch up with the global economy, the World Bank urged Moscow this week, at the same time as forecasting that (more…)

reuters Read More»

Nabiullina named best European central banker as purge continues

CBR Chief Elvira NabiullinaThree years into her purge of the country’s banking sector which to date has seen 276 financial institutions driven out of business and a further 28 put through the regulator’s financial rehabilitation programme, the Central Bank of Russia’s Elvira Nabiullina has been named Europe’s best central banker for 2016 by the UK magazine The Banker. (more…)

www Read More»

Beijing looks to stem Chinese capital flight and encourage FDI

Chinese Commerce Minister Gao HuchengChinese capital flight: The Chinese government is getting ready to curb its private sector’s appetite for overseas mergers and acquisitions and to encourage inward investment by sharply reducing restrictions on foreign investment access in 2017 to make it easier for overseas firms to spend their cash in the People’s Republic, according to a blog posted on the Ministry of Commerce’s website earlier this month. The government would “promote the healthy and orderly development of outbound investment and cooperation in 2017, ” Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng is quoted as saying. (more…)

theguardian Read More»

Protestors take to the streets as Modi urges Indians to join digital world

Indians protest against ban on large rupee notesWith banks overwhelmed by desperate account holders and crowds of Indians taking to city streets to protest at his decision to give the country four hours’ notice of a ban on 500- and 1000-rupee notes, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi used yesterday’s monthly radio broadcast to defend his actions and to call on the nation’s SMEs and casual work force to use digital payment channels as part of the fight against endemic corruption. (more…)

atimes Read More»

Investment rolls back in as retailers bank on Russian economic recovery

FDI RussiaRussian economic recovery: Foreign direct investment into Russia reached $8.3bn in the first nine months of this year, according to data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), easily outstripping the $5.9bn reported for the whole of 2015, as foreign retailers began betting that the country’s two-year long recession is coming to an end.
Even before (more…)

Bloomberg Read More»

World Bank upgrades forecast for Russian economy as Moscow looks in hope to Trump to trigger detente

REUTERS/Sergei KarpukhinThe Russian economy could return to growth as early as next year, the World Bank predicted yesterday, with a rise in oil prices expected to help it bottom out in the second half of the year. While the bank is forecasting that Russia’s GDP will contract by 0.6% this year, it now sees it growing by 1.5% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. Back in April, the bank was forecasting a 1.1% growth rate for next year.
While it is now expects higher oil prices to have a positive impact on domestic demand and to trigger investment activity as some of the country’s major companies replenish their stocks, it warned that the Russian economy remained dangerously dependent on its oil and gas sectors. “This growth upsurge, however, is unlikely to turn the tide in terms of building a more diversified economy,” it said.
US President elect Donald TrumpThe Kremlin will also be hoping that Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections may put paid to one of the World Bank’s other concerns, namely that economic sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea might complicate Russia’s economic recovery. On receiving news of yesterday’s shock result. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Donald Trump a congratulatory telegram in which he expressed his hope that relations between the two world powers would improve “from their crisis state.” Ties between Moscow and Washington must be “based on principles of equality, mutual respect and a real accounting of each other’s positions,” he added.

reuters Read More»

Hinkley Point the model as France and China pledge to set up investment fund

Hinkley Point CHinkley Point: France and China are to set up a fund for joint investment in overseas projects, France’s foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault told reporters at a joint briefing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing yesterday, and confirmed that the two countries intended to use (more…)

reuters Read More»

Putin wins Russian parliamentary elections but turnout down

Russian Parliamentary elections 2016Russian parliamentary elections: Russia’s ruling political party has comfortably won this weekend’s parliamentary elections, early results suggest, but a drop in turnout from 60% five years’ ago (more…)

reuters Read More»

Pressure mounts with Russian Reserve Fund running on empty

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei LavrovThe Russian Reserve Fund will run out of money by the end of next year, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Lavrov told journalists on Friday, confirming speculation that the country has been burning through its national reserves at an unprecedented rate. Hit by western sanctions (more…)

thetimes Read More»

Moscow may go to market to plug budget gap as Russian bonds rebound

Russian WW2 war bondInternational interest in Russian bonds continued to grow this week with yesterday’s issue from Gazprom Neft yielding 9.4%, the lowest of any body issued by a major Russian company in the past two and half years. The yield – down from a recent average of 11% – (more…)

intellinews Read More»

Moody’s upgrades outlook for Russia and China but downgrades Turkey

Chinese bottling plantMoody’s Investors Service yesterday revised upwards its macro outlook for Russia and China, but forecast that Turkey would grow less than previously expected. The credit rating agency’s analysts are now predicting that overall growth across the G20 emerging markets will reach 4.4% this year and 5% in 2017. More specifically, (more…)

reuters Read More»

ADB forecasts India to lead economic growth as China and SE Asia slip

Indian shoppersADB forecasts: Brisk consumer spending and the growth of its rural economy will help the Indian economy outperform its Asia Pacific neighbours this year, the ADB predicted today. The bank expects South Asia to be the fastest growing sub-region, with India likely to meet its 2016 projected growth targets (more…)

thejakartapost Read More»

New Delhi to push ahead with Indian reform program, pledges Jaitley

Indian Finance Minister Arun JaitleyIndian reform program: Encouraged by a 7.9% GDP growth rate in the first three months of the year, the Indian government is determined to push ahead with its reform agenda and to retain its position as the world’s fastest growing economy, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said this week.
“For India to realise its full potential (more…)

indiatimes Read More»

Indian economy growing fastest in world, new survey finds

Indian construction workersIndian economy: A Reuters survey of economists due out on Tuesday is expected to show that India’s GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year between January and March, confirming its position as the world’s fastest growing economy. This upbeat outlook contrasts with neighbouring China, where growth slipped to 6.7% in Q1, the slowest rate it has recorded in seven years.
Given the poor prospects for a boost from exports, however, (more…)

reuters Read More»

Russian economy destined to stagnate without reform, Kurdin warns

Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei KudrinThe Russian economy will not start growing but will remain “at the bottom” if authorities do not start implementing structural reforms, its former Finance Minister, and Deputy Chairman of the Presidential Economic Council Alexey Kurdin warned yesterday.
“While we can (more…)

ITAR-TASS Read More»

Prospect of stable oil prices prompts IMF to brighten outlook for Russia

nodding donkeyThe prospect of stable oil prices this week prompted the IMF to improve its outlook for Russia’s GDP from -1.8% to -1.5% for the current year and from 0.8% to 1% for 2017. “The recession is extending into 2016, with the economy expected to contract by about 1% due to lower oil prices, weak (more…)

ITAR-TASS Read More»

Iran’s GDP set to rise 4-5% – IMF

IMF's First Deputy Managing Director David LiptonIran’s GDP could enjoy a growth rate of between 4 and 4.5% following an increase in the country’s oil revenues, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton predicted this week. “Higher oil exports, along with lower costs of trade and financial transactions, as (more…)

theiranproject Read More»