Iran’s GDP could enjoy a growth rate of between 4 and 4.5% following an increase in the country’s oil revenues, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton predicted this week. “Higher oil exports, along with lower costs of trade and financial transactions, as (more…)
A combination of targeted fiscal support, exchange rate adjustment, strengthened domestic liquidity management and structural reforms have helped Kazakhstan counter the effects of lower oil prices and slower growth in Russia, China and Europe, the IMF pronounced this week; and, while GDP growth slowed to 1% in 2016, it is expected to bounce back to 2.5% in the current year.
Russian recession: Russia is edging closer to the end of its longest recession in almost two decades as mining, manufacturing and agriculture along with stabilising oil prices, to help to steady the economy.
GDP contracted by 0.2% last year after an upwardly revised decline of 2.8% in 2015, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Service yesterday. with rising exports and rebuilding of stocks among the key drivers. Manufacturing grew by 1.4% while production of oil, gas and other natural resources was up by 0.2%. Buoyed by restrictions on imports and the ruble devaluation, agriculture grew by 3.5 %. although consumers continued to struggle, with wholesale and retail trade down 3.6 %. Construction was also off the pace and contracted by 4.3%.
“We can expect growth of 1-1.5 % [this year] and maybe even 2% if things go well”, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov predicted last month.
President Vladimir Putin was less sanguine, however, and has warned ministers that the country was not yet out of the woods and pressed them to find new sources of stimulus.
Three years into her purge of the country’s banking sector which to date has seen 276 financial institutions driven out of business and a further 28 put through the regulator’s financial rehabilitation programme, the Central Bank of Russia’s Elvira Nabiullina has been named Europe’s best central banker for 2016 by the UK magazine The Banker. (more…)
Chinese capital flight: The Chinese government is getting ready to curb its private sector’s appetite for overseas mergers and acquisitions and to encourage inward investment by sharply reducing restrictions on foreign investment access in 2017 to make it easier for overseas firms to spend their cash in the People’s Republic, according to a blog posted on the Ministry of Commerce’s website earlier this month. The government would “promote the healthy and orderly development of outbound investment and cooperation in 2017, ” Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng is quoted as saying. (more…)
With banks overwhelmed by desperate account holders and crowds of Indians taking to city streets to protest at his decision to give the country four hours’ notice of a ban on 500- and 1000-rupee notes, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi used yesterday’s monthly radio broadcast to defend his actions and to call on the nation’s SMEs and casual work force to use digital payment channels as part of the fight against endemic corruption. (more…)atimes Read More»
Russian economic recovery: Foreign direct investment into Russia reached $8.3bn in the first nine months of this year, according to data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), easily outstripping the $5.9bn reported for the whole of 2015, as foreign retailers began betting that the country’s two-year long recession is coming to an end.
Even before (more…)
The Russian economy could return to growth as early as next year, the World Bank predicted yesterday, with a rise in oil prices expected to help it bottom out in the second half of the year. While the bank is forecasting that Russia’s GDP will contract by 0.6% this year, it now sees it growing by 1.5% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. Back in April, the bank was forecasting a 1.1% growth rate for next year.
While it is now expects higher oil prices to have a positive impact on domestic demand and to trigger investment activity as some of the country’s major companies replenish their stocks, it warned that the Russian economy remained dangerously dependent on its oil and gas sectors. “This growth upsurge, however, is unlikely to turn the tide in terms of building a more diversified economy,” it said.
The Kremlin will also be hoping that Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections may put paid to one of the World Bank’s other concerns, namely that economic sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea might complicate Russia’s economic recovery. On receiving news of yesterday’s shock result. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Donald Trump a congratulatory telegram in which he expressed his hope that relations between the two world powers would improve “from their crisis state.” Ties between Moscow and Washington must be “based on principles of equality, mutual respect and a real accounting of each other’s positions,” he added.
Hinkley Point: France and China are to set up a fund for joint investment in overseas projects, France’s foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault told reporters at a joint briefing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing yesterday, and confirmed that the two countries intended to use (more…)reuters Read More»
The Russian Reserve Fund will run out of money by the end of next year, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Lavrov told journalists on Friday, confirming speculation that the country has been burning through its national reserves at an unprecedented rate. Hit by western sanctions (more…)thetimes Read More»
ADB forecasts: Brisk consumer spending and the growth of its rural economy will help the Indian economy outperform its Asia Pacific neighbours this year, the ADB predicted today. The bank expects South Asia to be the fastest growing sub-region, with India likely to meet its 2016 projected growth targets (more…)thejakartapost Read More»
Indian reform program: Encouraged by a 7.9% GDP growth rate in the first three months of the year, the Indian government is determined to push ahead with its reform agenda and to retain its position as the world’s fastest growing economy, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said this week.
“For India to realise its full potential (more…)
Indian economy: A Reuters survey of economists due out on Tuesday is expected to show that India’s GDP grew by 7.5% year-on-year between January and March, confirming its position as the world’s fastest growing economy. This upbeat outlook contrasts with neighbouring China, where growth slipped to 6.7% in Q1, the slowest rate it has recorded in seven years.
Given the poor prospects for a boost from exports, however, (more…)
The prospect of stable oil prices this week prompted the IMF to improve its outlook for Russia’s GDP from -1.8% to -1.5% for the current year and from 0.8% to 1% for 2017. “The recession is extending into 2016, with the economy expected to contract by about 1% due to lower oil prices, weak (more…)ITAR-TASS Read More»