New World Trade Outlook Indicator launched to aid short-term forecasting


World Trade Outlook IndicatorIn an attempt to improve real-time global economic forecasting, the World Trade Organization (WTO) last week launched its World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), WTO said on Friday. Designed to give an early signal of the current and short-term direction of world trade and its near future, the WTOI should be able to signal turning points in world merchandise trade volume and “give a headline figure to show performance against trend.” A reading of 100 would indicate trade growth in line with recent trends, a reading greater than 100 would suggest above trend growth, while a reading below 100 indicates below trend growth. The WTOI will be updated on a quarterly basis.
WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo“In serving as a quarterly signal of current and short-term trade conditions, the World Trade Outlook Indicator responds to strong interest from policymakers and the business community for more immediate, real time information on trade and trading conditions,”WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said. “The WTOI should provide an early signal if trade is likely to slow or accelerate in the near future. At present it suggests that trade growth will remain weak into the third quarter of 2016.”